ULTOPS / WNBA

2 picks for 2026-08-11

FanDuel Live Mode: EXPERIMENTALAug 11, 4:08 PM ET

WNBA Prop Card

WNBA Correlation-Aware Player Prop Model V1 ranks the current slate by model probability, projection gap, book price, and portfolio risk. FanDuel-live mode is the primary card path, with unavailable props removed before model selection.

Selected

9 board rows

Avg prob.

67.6%

1 S / 1 B

SGP risk

LOW

100.0% est. multiplier

Settlement

Pending

2 pending

Slate Notes

88.9% pick-side price coverage

FanDuel Live Mode

Small FanDuel-only replay after availability gates; too few settled six-pick dates to replace archive proof.

Archive proof

14/27 parlays

51.85% archive-only

FanDuel shadow

3/5 parlays

60.00% limited replay

SGP exposure: 1 max legs in one game, 0 same-game pairs, 100.0% est. multiplier.

Some rows are missing both over_odds and under_odds, so those rows are ranked without true price edge.

Some sourced rows have only the pick-side book price, so price edge is approximate rather than full no-vig.

Only 2 rows cleared the current gates for a 6-pick target.

FanDuel-live card is experimental: the 51.85% archive proof does not transfer to strict FanDuel execution.

Independent parlay probability assumes leg independence; same-game and same-team correlation can change realized results.

Only 2 of 6 target legs selected.

Settlement Tracker

0 settled / 2 pending

Wins

Losses

Accuracy

Pending

#1 Erica Wheeler

OVER PTS 8.5

PENDING

Actual n/aFanDuel

#2 Sabrina Ionescu

UNDER P+A 23.5

PENDING

Actual n/aFanDuel

Today's Picks

Ranked one per player, highest model score first.

2 selected

#1Selected

Erica Wheeler

Los Angeles Sparks vs Phoenix Mercury

OVER

PTS 8.5

Projection

12.05

Model

68.9%

Gap

+3.55

Price

-130

projection 12.05 vs line 8.50 / over probability 68.9% / gap +3.55 (0.53 sigma)

Single Side PriceThin Market CountFanDuel

#2Selected

Sabrina Ionescu

New York Liberty vs Indiana Fever

UNDER

P+A 23.5

Projection

19.42

Model

66.4%

Gap

-4.08

Price

-118

projection 19.42 vs line 23.50 / under probability 66.4% / gap -4.08 (0.45 sigma)

Combo Market CorrelationSingle Side PriceThin Market CountFanDuel

Next Up

Strong rows held by portfolio or slate gates.

BCandidate

Erica Wheeler

Los Angeles Sparks vs Phoenix Mercury

OVER

P+A 14.5

Projection

17.66

Model

64.6%

Gap

+3.16

Price

-122

Combo Market CorrelationSingle Side PriceFanDuel

BCandidate

Erica Wheeler

Los Angeles Sparks vs Phoenix Mercury

OVER

3PM 1.5

Projection

2.02

Model

63.1%

Gap

+0.52

Price

+124

Single Side PriceThin Market CountFanDuel

CCandidate

Sabrina Ionescu

New York Liberty vs Indiana Fever

UNDER

PTS 17.5

Projection

14.74

Model

60.8%

Gap

-2.76

Price

-106

Single Side PriceThin Market CountFanDuel

Board Explorer

2 of 9 rows shown by current filters

Erica Wheeler

Selected

Los Angeles Sparks vs Phoenix Mercury

Model lean

OVER PTS 8.5

Model

68.9% / 0.830

Gap

+3.55

Listed

OVER PTS -130

FanDuel

Single Side Price / Thin Market Count

Sabrina Ionescu

Selected

New York Liberty vs Indiana Fever

Model lean

UNDER P+A 23.5

Model

66.4% / 0.731

Gap

-4.08

Listed

UNDER P+A -118

FanDuel

Combo Market Correlation / Single Side Price

Model Stack

Projection engine

Blends player per-minute form, EWMA, last-3/last-10 production, season baseline, position fallback, opponent allowance, home/away splits, and expected minutes.

Probability layer

Converts projection gap into an over/under probability with market-specific residuals and a recency-weighted empirical hit-rate blend.

Price edge

Normalizes supplied American odds to no-vig fair probability, then compares book price against model probability.

Portfolio gates

Limits exposure by player, team, game, market, combo market, and same-team counting overs, then applies live-mode availability gates and SGP exposure accounting.

Latest Selector Proof

Six-pick coverage

41/41

Archive-ML walk-forward covered every evaluated slate

Settled parlays

14/27

51.85% archive/cross-source six-pick parlay hit rate

Settled legs

175/226

77.43% archive selected-leg accuracy

FanDuel shadow

3/5

60.00% limited FanDuel availability replay; sample is too small to drive the selector

Portfolio Gates

Max 6 picks

Max 1 per player per slate

FanDuel-live mode is the primary six-pick path for the website card

Archive-ML proof does not transfer to single-book availability by default

Unavailable user-confirmed FanDuel props are removed before model selection

Soft SGP tax lowers priority for additional same-game legs in FanDuel-live mode

Max 6 per team in live mode

Max 6 per game in live mode

Max 4 per market

Max 4 combo markets

Max 1 same-team counting over

Requires target-date ESPN slate and current ESPN roster match

FanDuel rows require playable side odds and current source context

Live forced fill requires at least 52% model probability

Archive-ML rerank uses only prior archived candidate outcomes

Current archive proof: 41/41 covered, 14/27 settled six-pick parlays, 175/226 legs

Limited FanDuel replay: 3/5 settled six-pick parlays, 73.33% legs

Data Contract

game_dateplayerteamopponentmarketlineover_oddsunder_oddssportsbook_countprojected_minutesstarter_expectedinjury_notesource_picksource_projectionsource_url

WNBA V1 ranks sourced player props with historical boxscore evidence, current FanDuel-labeled prices, source projection alignment, and portfolio gates. Archive proof and live FanDuel execution are separated; live use still requires player availability and book availability confirmation.