ULTOPS / WNBA

6 picks for 2026-06-27

Current card liveJun 27, 11:53 AM ET

WNBA Prop Card

WNBA Correlation-Aware Player Prop Model V1 ranks the current slate by model probability, projection gap, book price, and portfolio risk.

Selected

129 board rows

Avg prob.

73.9%

3 A / 2 S / 1 B

Avg score

0.836

Selected card

Settlement

Pending

6 pending

Settlement Tracker

0 settled / 6 pending

Wins

Losses

Accuracy

Pending

#1 Nyara Sabally

UNDER 3PM 1.5

PENDING

Actual n/abet365

#2 Julie Allemand

UNDER P+R 26.5

PENDING

Actual n/abet365

#3 Lexie Hull

UNDER P+R 13.5

PENDING

Actual n/ahardrock

#4 Erica Wheeler

UNDER P+A 16.5

PENDING

Actual n/aPublic board

#5 DeWanna Bonner

UNDER REB 6.5

PENDING

Actual n/acaesars

#6 Marina Mabrey

OVER 3PM 3.5

PENDING

Actual n/aPublic board

Today's Picks

Ranked one per player, highest model score first.

6 selected

#1Selected

Nyara Sabally

Toronto Tempo vs Phoenix Mercury

UNDER

3PM 1.5

Projection

0.28

Model

82.0%

Gap

-1.22

Price

-200

projection 0.28 vs line 1.50 / under probability 82.0% / gap -1.22 (0.93 sigma)

Same Game Concentrationbet365

#2Selected

Julie Allemand

Toronto Tempo vs Phoenix Mercury

UNDER

P+R 26.5

Projection

10.52

Model

94.1%

Gap

-15.98

Price

-112

projection 10.52 vs line 26.50 / under probability 94.1% / gap -15.98 (2.25 sigma)

Combo Market CorrelationSame Game ConcentrationVolatile Minutesbet365

#3Selected

Lexie Hull

Indiana Fever vs Los Angeles Sparks

UNDER

P+R 13.5

Projection

9.80

Model

69.7%

Gap

-3.70

Price

-110

projection 9.80 vs line 13.50 / under probability 69.7% / gap -3.70 (0.47 sigma)

Combo Market CorrelationVolatile Minuteshardrock

#4Selected

Erica Wheeler

Los Angeles Sparks vs Indiana Fever

UNDER

P+A 16.5

Projection

12.56

Model

69.1%

Gap

-3.94

Price

-125

projection 12.56 vs line 16.50 / under probability 69.1% / gap -3.94 (0.50 sigma)

Combo Market CorrelationSingle Side PriceThin Market CountPublic board

#5Selected

DeWanna Bonner

Phoenix Mercury vs Toronto Tempo

UNDER

REB 6.5

Projection

5.17

Model

66.0%

Gap

-1.33

Price

-138

projection 5.17 vs line 6.50 / under probability 66.0% / gap -1.33 (0.42 sigma)

Same Game ConcentrationVolatile Minutescaesars

#6Selected

Marina Mabrey

Toronto Tempo vs Phoenix Mercury

OVER

3PM 3.5

Projection

4.61

Model

62.8%

Gap

+1.10

Price

+132

projection 4.61 vs line 3.50 / over probability 62.8% / gap +1.11 (0.68 sigma)

Same Game ConcentrationSingle Side PriceThin Market CountPublic board

Next Up

Strong rows held by portfolio or slate gates.

ACandidate

Lexie Hull

Indiana Fever vs Los Angeles Sparks

UNDER

REB 4.5

Projection

3.11

Model

67.3%

Gap

-1.39

Price

+100

Volatile Minutesbet365

BCandidate

Nyara Sabally

Toronto Tempo vs Phoenix Mercury

UNDER

PTS 11.5

Projection

9.30

Model

64.9%

Gap

-2.20

Price

-110

bet365

BCandidate

Flau'jae Johnson

Seattle Storm vs Atlanta Dream

OVER

PTS 11.5

Projection

14.63

Model

62.9%

Gap

+3.13

Price

-100

fanduel

BCandidate

Lexie Hull

Indiana Fever vs Los Angeles Sparks

UNDER

3PM 1.5

Projection

0.96

Model

66.0%

Gap

-0.54

Price

-190

Volatile Minutesbet365

Board Explorer

6 of 129 rows shown by current filters

Nyara Sabally

Selected

Toronto Tempo vs Phoenix Mercury

Model lean

UNDER 3PM 1.5

Model

82.0% / 0.969

Gap

-1.22

Listed

UNDER 3PM -200

bet365

Same Game Concentration

Julie Allemand

Selected

Toronto Tempo vs Phoenix Mercury

Model lean

UNDER P+R 26.5

Model

94.1% / 0.964

Gap

-15.98

Listed

UNDER P+R -112

bet365

Combo Market Correlation / Same Game Concentration

Lexie Hull

Selected

Indiana Fever vs Los Angeles Sparks

Model lean

UNDER P+R 13.5

Model

69.7% / 0.814

Gap

-3.70

Listed

UNDER P+R -110

hardrock

Combo Market Correlation / Volatile Minutes

Erica Wheeler

Selected

Los Angeles Sparks vs Indiana Fever

Model lean

UNDER P+A 16.5

Model

69.1% / 0.804

Gap

-3.94

Listed

UNDER P+A -125

Public board

Combo Market Correlation / Single Side Price

DeWanna Bonner

Selected

Phoenix Mercury vs Toronto Tempo

Model lean

UNDER REB 6.5

Model

66.0% / 0.743

Gap

-1.33

Listed

UNDER REB -138

caesars

Same Game Concentration / Volatile Minutes

Marina Mabrey

Selected

Toronto Tempo vs Phoenix Mercury

Model lean

OVER 3PM 3.5

Model

62.8% / 0.720

Gap

+1.10

Listed

OVER 3PM +132

Public board

Same Game Concentration / Single Side Price

Model Stack

Projection engine

Blends player per-minute form, EWMA, last-3/last-10 production, season baseline, position fallback, opponent allowance, home/away splits, and expected minutes.

Probability layer

Converts projection gap into an over/under probability with market-specific residuals and a recency-weighted empirical hit-rate blend.

Price edge

Normalizes supplied American odds to no-vig fair probability, then compares book price against model probability.

Portfolio gates

Limits exposure by player, team, game, market, combo market, and same-team counting overs, then uses controlled expanded-fill gates to reach the target only when enough ESPN-roster-valid players clear the model.

Portfolio Gates

Max 6 picks

Max 1 per player per slate

Max 6 per team in expanded mode

Max 6 per game in expanded mode

Max 4 per market

Max 4 combo markets

Max 1 same-team counting over

Requires target-date ESPN slate and current ESPN roster match

Expanded fill requires probability, edge, and clean team context

Data Contract

game_dateplayerteamopponentmarketlineover_oddsunder_oddssportsbook_countprojected_minutesstarter_expectedinjury_notesource_picksource_projectionsource_url

WNBA V1 ranks sourced player props with historical boxscore evidence, best available over/under prices, source projection alignment, and portfolio gates. It is not a guarantee, and live use still requires player availability confirmation.